2024 Marks Hottest Year on Record, Raising Concerns over Climate Change Overshoot and Reversal
2024 has officially become the warmest year ever recorded, with global temperatures rising 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels, according to the European Union’s Copernicus climate observatory. This marks the second consecutive year in which temperatures have surpassed a 1.5°C increase, a critical threshold established by the Paris Agreement to mitigate the impacts of human-driven climate change. The achievement of this milestone has raised significant concerns among climate scientists, as the 1.5°C target has been a cornerstone of global efforts to combat climate change. While the Paris Agreement aims to limit the long-term rise in global temperatures to below this threshold, the new figures have led many experts to question whether this goal is still attainable. Jochem Marotzke, a climatologist at the Max-Planck-Institute, expressed the growing alarm, stating, “Anyone who continues to say the world can stay below that limit is delusional. We have to face reality and adapt to increasing warming.” In light of this, the idea of “overshoot”—a temporary surpassing of the 1.5°C target followed by efforts to reverse the trend—has gained attention among some scientists and politicians. However, experts caution that such an approach is fraught with risks and remains highly uncertain. To reverse the temperature rise, vast quantities of carbon dioxide (CO2) would need to be captured and stored. Estimates suggest that reducing global temperatures by just 0.1°C would require absorbing at least 150 billion tonnes of CO2—equivalent to four years of global emissions. Achieving this would likely involve extensive reforestation and geoengineering technologies, such as carbon capture plants or solar geoengineering. However, these solutions are still in early stages, expensive, and controversial, with potential long-term consequences. Despite efforts to reduce emissions and increase carbon capture, scientists warn that the quantities of CO2 that need to be removed may be even greater than currently predicted. Some experts have even raised concerns about the risk of “hidden” warming, where temperatures continue to rise even after emissions have been neutralized. As global temperatures climb, the window for effective climate action continues to shrink, leaving the world facing an uncertain future.